In the high-stakes world of private markets, a seismic shift is underway that could reshape the trajectory of artificial intelligence development. While AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI have dominated investor attention with their soaring valuations and public standoffs, a different kind of tech giant is quietly positioning itself to steal the spotlight – and the capital.
According to Glen Anderson, president of investment bank Rainmaker Securities, the secondary market for private company shares is experiencing unprecedented dynamics. “The hardest stock to source in our marketplace is Anthropic,” Anderson told TechCrunch. “There’s just no sellers.” This insatiable demand comes as buyers reportedly have $2 billion ready to deploy into the AI company, while $600 million in OpenAI shares struggle to find takers.
The SpaceX Factor: A $1 Trillion Disruption
What makes this moment particularly precarious for AI companies is the looming shadow of SpaceX’s imminent initial public offering. The rocket and satellite company has filed confidentially for what could be one of the largest market debuts in history, with Elon Musk reportedly aiming to raise between $50 billion and $75 billion in June. This comes after SpaceX merged with Musk’s AI venture xAI earlier this year, creating a $1.25 trillion private company behemoth.
“SpaceX is going to soak up a lot of liquidity,” Anderson warned. “There’s only so much money out there allocated to IPOs.” The first-mover advantage in public markets could leave AI companies scrambling for whatever capital remains after SpaceX’s massive offering.
Beyond the Hype: The Infrastructure Reality
The investment frenzy around AI companies masks deeper challenges that could impact their long-term viability. According to David Crane, CEO of Generate Capital, the rush to build energy infrastructure for AI data centers risks overbuilding power plants, potentially leaving power companies with excess capacity costs. US data center power demand is projected to surge from 34.7GW in 2024 to 106GW by 2035, creating infrastructure challenges that could slow AI development.
“As much as the data centre people tell you their demand for electricity is infinite, it feels to me like there will be a time when they’ll be overbuilt,” Crane told the Financial Times. “They’re going to have spare electrons.” This infrastructure reality contrasts sharply with the seemingly limitless investor enthusiasm for AI companies.
The Hardware Challenge: Nvidia’s Dominance and Emerging Competition
Meanwhile, the hardware underpinning AI development faces its own transformation. London-based AI chip startup Fractile is seeking to raise over $200 million at a $1 billion valuation to challenge Nvidia’s dominance in AI chips. Backed by former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger and NATO’s Innovation Fund, Fractile focuses on building AI chips faster than Nvidia’s using SRAM memory technology for improved AI inference speed and cost.
This comes amid growing investor interest in Nvidia challengers and follows a recent $220 million funding round for UK chip startup Olix. The hardware race highlights how AI development depends not just on software innovation but on physical infrastructure that remains concentrated in few hands.
Privacy Concerns Reshape User Behavior
While investors chase AI stocks, user behavior reveals growing concerns about data privacy. DuckDuckGo’s privacy-first chatbot Duck.ai saw 11.1 million visits in February 2025, a 300% increase from January, according to ZDNET. Unlike proprietary chatbots, Duck.ai anonymizes queries, uses multiple frontier models from providers like Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta without exposing user IP addresses, and has agreements preventing model providers from using data for training.
Nathan Calvin, Vice President of State Affairs and General Counsel at Encode AI, noted: “It’s an issue that’s been around for a while, but I definitely feel like a lot of folks are taking a look at it with fresh eyes and urgency.” This privacy trend could reshape how AI companies approach data collection and user trust.
The Investment Dilemma: Timing and Market Saturation
Anderson’s analysis reveals a critical dilemma for AI companies considering public offerings. “Time your IPO too early and you’re the one testing market receptivity. Wait for someone else to go first, and you may find the biggest checks have already been written.” With SpaceX poised to absorb massive amounts of investment capital, AI companies face a timing challenge that could determine their access to future growth funding.
The contrast between SpaceX’s disciplined approach and the AI sector’s valuation frenzy is striking. Anderson credits SpaceX’s management with “not getting too greedy” in pricing, which has resulted in enormous gains for earlier investors. Someone who invested in SpaceX’s 2015 round at a $12 billion valuation is now sitting on a gain of more than 100x, with the company valued at over $1 trillion.
As the investment landscape shifts, the real question becomes: Can AI companies maintain their momentum when competing for capital against a proven, profitable space company with clear revenue streams and a track record of execution? The answer may determine not just individual company fortunes, but the pace of AI development itself.